Hey sisters, hey brothers! Who hasn’t been obsessed with the word “luck”? 🤔 Always losing at raffles? Always getting burned in investments? Feel like life’s a chaotic mess and good fortune always bypasses you? Hold on! Today, as your instant solution blogger, I’m going to totally dissect an “invisible giant” that most people misunderstand, yet is everywhere – Probability!💫
Honestly, I used to be just like you, thinking luck was some kind of mysticism. I couldn’t figure out why some people were so smooth-sailing, and others so unlucky. It wasn’t until I deeply understood probability that I realized: there’s no such thing as destined “bad luck”; often, it’s your insufficient understanding of probability secretly “digging pits” for you! The moment I uncovered the truth, it was a total epiphany!💡
In this post, I won’t bore you with complex mathematical formulas. I’ll only talk about how ordinary people can use probabilistic thinking to “win more and lose less” in life, work, and investments! Come on, grab your seats, the good stuff is coming!⬇️
Core Concepts, Instant Understanding!
Many of us still understand probability as “50% chance means fifty-fifty.” That’s a huge mistake! I’ve summarized a few core concepts that, once understood, will immediately shift your thinking paradigm!
1. Probability Doesn’t Predict Single Events; It Describes “Trends”!
- What you might think: If I flip a coin, heads is 50%, so next time it must be tails!
- The truth is: Probability reveals the statistical regularity of “a large number of repeated events.” If you flip it once or twice, it could be heads or tails. But if you flip it ten thousand times, the number of heads will get infinitely close to 5000.
- My past self: Playing gacha games, finally getting an SSR, then thinking, “No way I’ll get another one next time,” and stopping.
- My current self: Understood that each draw is an independent event; the probability of drawing an SSR next time doesn’t change because I got one last time. But if I want a high chance of success, I need to increase the number of attempts or wait for probability-boosting events.
- Pro Tip: Don’t assume success next time just because you succeeded once, and don’t think you’ll never recover from one failure! Every time is a new beginning, but the overall trend depends on the “total volume”!
2. Law of Large Numbers: Small Samples are About Luck; Large Samples are About Skill!
- What it means: When you do something enough times, even if each individual result is highly random, the final average result will converge to a determined value.
- For example:
- Buying lottery tickets: If you buy once, the chance of winning is almost zero. Buy for a lifetime, the chance of winning is still infinitesimally low, because lottery is a typical “low-probability event.” Your success relies on “blind luck,” not skill or probabilistic thinking.
- Startup success rate: Suppose the success rate for startups in a certain industry is 20%. A single entrepreneur failing their first time is normal, and they might fail a second time too. But if an angel investor invests in 100 projects, they’re likely to hit 20 successful ones. Because they’re playing a probability game on “large samples.”
- Instant Win Strategy:
- For low-probability good things: Don’t go all-in! Don’t put all your hope on low-probability events (like winning the lottery, getting rich overnight); probability can’t help you with those. Winning is a bonus, not winning is expected.
- For low-probability bad things: Be prepared! For example, a plane crash is a low-probability event, but we still buy insurance because the loss is immense if it happens.
- For high-probability success: Increase your base! If you want to succeed in an area, work on things that are “highly probable” to succeed, and keep doing them consistently. For example: studying hard, working diligently, investing in yourself, living a healthy life. These things might not show results on a single attempt, but persistent long-term effort makes the probability of success incredibly high!
3. Independent vs. Dependent Events: Avoiding the “Gambler’s Fallacy”!
- Independent Events: Previous results don’t affect subsequent results. Common examples: coin flips, dice rolls, random draws.
- Misconception: “I’ve flipped heads 5 times in a row, surely it’s tails next time?” – This is the classic “Gambler’s Fallacy”! The coin has no memory! The probability of flipping heads next time is still 50%.
- Dependent Events: Previous results do affect subsequent results. This usually involves “information feedback” or “resource depletion.”
- Example: Drawing cards from a deck. If you draw an Ace from a deck, the probability of drawing another Ace afterward decreases (because the total number of Aces has reduced).
- Life Application: Job hunting. If you’re rejected after one interview, it doesn’t mean you must succeed at the next one (independent event part). Rather, you learn from the failure, which increases your probability of success next time (dependent/conditional probability part).
- Instant Win Strategy: Figure out what kind of event you’re facing!
- If it’s an independent event: Don’t dwell on past “good luck” or “bad luck”; each time is a fresh opportunity. Don’t think “I have to win back my losses” just because you’ve lost a few rounds, and don’t think “I’m on a roll” just because you’ve won a few!
- If it’s a dependent event: Learn to adjust your judgment based on new information! For instance, in investing, company financial reports or changes in industry policy will alter the original investment probabilities, and you need to adjust your strategy in time.
4. Bayesian Thinking: Your “High Probability” Is Always Being Updated!
- Core idea: When facing uncertainty, our decisions aren’t based on “initial guesses,” but are continuously adjusted and updated based on new evidence.
- Scenario:
- Dating: You initially think a certain type of person is right for you (initial probability). But as you interact with a few people and discover new information (new evidence), you might adjust your definition of “ideal partner” and the probability of finding them.
- Project Management: You estimate a project’s success rate at 80%. Halfway through, unexpected problems arise (new evidence), and you might need to lower the success rate to 60% and consider a Plan B.
- Instant Win Strategy: Stay “open-minded”! Your thinking shouldn’t be rigid. When you gain new information, immediately re-evaluate your “probability of success” or “risk probability” and confidently adjust your strategy. Refuse to be stubborn; your life will be more flexible, and you’ll make fewer mistakes!
How to Actually Use Probabilistic Thinking?
By now, are you feeling a buzzing in your head, but also like you’ve grasped something profound? 🤩 Don’t worry, apply these concepts to your life, and you’ll be a true “life winner”!
- Manage Your “Sunk Costs”: Money lost or time wasted in the past – these irretrievable “sunk costs” – do not affect the probability of success for your next decision. Don’t keep making mistakes just because “you’ve come this far”!
- Embrace Uncertainty: Probability tells us that everything has uncertainty; there’s no 100% success and no 0% failure. Learn to accept this uncertainty and approach ups and downs with a calm mind.
- Long-Termism is King: Don’t go all-in on things with low probability of success and high probability of failure (like lottery tickets). For things with high probability of success and low probability of failure (like studying, exercising, working hard), stick with them. Turn “low-probability failure” into “almost impossible” under the “Law of Large Numbers”!
- Learning and Growth Are the Only Ways to Increase Probability: Your knowledge, skills, and experience are the ultimate currency for increasing your “probability of success” in any field. The more you learn, the higher your winning rate!
- Control What You Can Control: Many things are beyond our control (like market fluctuations), but we can control our strategies (like diversifying investments, setting stop-loss/take-profit points). Using probabilistic thinking means focusing on improving the probabilities you “can improve.”
My Real Feelings!
Since I learned to view problems through a probabilistic lens, my mindset has truly transformed! Before, if I lost a raffle, I’d complain about my bad luck; now, I just find it normal and move on to the next opportunity. 🚀 Before, a slight investment loss would make me sleepless with anxiety; now I understand that as long as the logic is sound, I’ll likely recover and profit in the long run, and my mind is much calmer.
This isn’t about turning you into a fortune-teller; it’s about making you a more rational, resilient person who can embrace uncertainty. When you’re no longer swayed by “luck” and instead view the world with a scientific eye, you’ll discover that life is full of opportunities. You just need to find that “high-probability” direction and courageously walk down it!
I hope this “instant solution” post truly helps you. Like, save, and share it so more people can break free from the shackles of “mysticism” and take control of their own life probabilities!❤️